It’s difficult to say that an early-May game against the Pirates is a make or break game for anyone, especially a 24-year-old in just his third season whose previous season’s success made him a fan favorite.
However if you were to look at Mike Leake’s season so far, and couple that with a pitcher waiting in the wings, fan expectations and the club’s aspiration of a division title, then it seems much more reasonable.
To say Leake has been bad this year would be an understatement: 0-3, 6.65 ERA, 29 hits in 21 innings (12 H/9), and while he never really was a strike out pitcher, he’s averaging just 3.7 Ks per 9 innings, which is pedestrian.
If you were to delve a little deeper into more advanced stats, you would be horrified: his ERA+ sits at 59 (the league average is set at 100, and the higher the number the better). While he’s throwing his fastball at nearly the same rate he was last season (35% in ’11 to 36% in ’12), he’s been throwing his changeup much more than in the past while holding back on his slider (only thrown 7% of the time, compared to 15% in ’10 and ’11). Even though he’s favoring his changeup, it’s actually valued as his WORST pitch, one that is constantly smashed for extra base hits (which have also doubled so far in this young season).
This isn’t to say the Reds are or should be looking to release Leake. The kid still has a lot of talent, and can one day – hopefully – be a middle of the rotation starter.
However Dusty certainly hasn’t backed Leake – in the beginning of the year he wouldn’t even count him as a set piece in the rotation – and the emergence of Aroldis Chapman has the fans clamoring for a change. There was a time when Leake was thought of as both the present and the future of the Reds, but as of right now he might be better off taking time to work out his issues in the minors.
Chapman has been unhittable as a reliever (23 Ks in 13.1 innings, with a 5.75 K/BB ratio) but remember: he had shoulder issues in the spring, and a guy who throws that hard with that delivery needs to be handled with kid gloves. He hasn’t been stretched out yet either, as the original plan was for that to happen in spring training but was derailed by injuries. We all know that he’s more valuable as a starter than as a setup man, but he’s not going to put up those types of numbers in the rotation as he’ll have to slow down his fastball even more than he has already so he can go more than a few innings.
Leake needs to perform well enough tonight to at least buy himself some more time in the rotation, otherwise the Reds will probably look elsewhere. It’s early enough in the season not to give up on Leake, but you can’t fault the team – and the fans - for being impatient.






